[SMM Analysis]The national NPI metal content decreased 14.14% MoM in November, and is projected to decline 9.93% MoM in December

In November 2025, China's NPI production in physical terms decreased 7.34% MoM, while metal content dropped 14.14% MoM. Both physical volume and metal content of NPI declined nationwide in November. As the traditional off-season set in, end-use consumption remained sluggish, market confidence stayed weak, stainless steel finished product selling prices continued to fall amid destocking difficulties, NPI buying interest weakened, and prices fell to a five-year low. Cost side, declining prices coupled with stubborn production costs deepened losses for high-grade NPI smelters, leading to reduced domestic NPI output.

Looking ahead, December remains within the traditional off-season and approaches year-end, with prices likely hovering at the annual bottom. Most upstream and downstream procurement and sales demand are expected to weaken MoM. Approaching year-end, multiple stainless steel enterprises have production cut plans, demand continues to shrink, and under low-price expectations, iron plants also plan production cuts. SMM expects China's NPI production in physical terms to decrease 5.22% MoM in December, with metal content down 9.93% MoM.